Applying Time Series Methodologies Simulation

Applying Time Series Methodologies theoretical account Applying Time Series Methodologies Simulation Memorandum To: Myra Reed, Vice hot seat of Production From: Anna Mathews age: February 6, 2012 Re: anticipate for Denim production and gross revenue ____________________________________________________________ _________________ full Myra, To predict the announce reckon needed, gross revenue is use as the independent variable because the correlation coefficient between gross sales and advertising budget shows a strong positive affinity at 0.96 portion. In addition, the standard error of prediction use sales as the independent variable is 11.00 which is lower than victimisation retail coverage at 24.00, and competitors advertising budget at 18.00 suggests a more accurate prediction. The current market administer of discolor Inc. is six percent of 40 billion dollars, the sales is anticipate to pass off 2,400 million dollars if the five percent growth accession continues through the fifth year. Using this randomness the value for y (advertising budget) is 162 million dollars. This provides the company with the information that in enounce to spend the 2,400 million dollars in sales the throttle advertising budget must be set at 162 million dollars. With this in mind based on the figures in ordain to reach the expected sales the company would birth to produce an intermediate of 47 million units per quarter.

To determine the fluctuations in the market a 2-period weighed moving average model is apply with a heaviness of 0.9 representing the most recent view and 0.1 in the previous view. The selective informatio n range for this calculation consists of a s! ix-year period in order to reduce the occurrence of obsolescent trends and violations that no longer hire to the market. Predictions: Quarter Sales in millions Units in millions Current Forecast of Units in millions 1 512 10.24 12 2 636...If you want to get a full essay, order it on our website: OrderEssay.net

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